Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings lineup advice for Friday s MLB games

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Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Unstoppable force, meet immoveable object

The Minnesota Twins, widely regarded the favorites to win the American League Central division entering the year, got off to a sluggish start, in part because of their schedule. That included being swept over three games by the AL East-leading Baltimore Orioles, and losing two of three to the National League West-leading Los Angeles Dodgers, as the Twins got off to a 7-13 start.

Since then, the Twins have been by far the game's hottest team, winners of 10 straight games while averaging 7.60 runs per game, more than 1½ runs greater than the next-closest team. Their roster has also been reinforced by the returns from the injured list of Max Kepler (April 22), Carlos Correa (April 29) and Jhoan Duran (April 30).

Unfortunately for their lineup, however, the Twins begin a three-game weekend series against the Boston Red Sox on Friday. The Red Sox, for those who missed it, have gotten a major league-leading 2.03 ERA from their starters, and they're scheduled to have one of their best-performing, Tanner Houck, on the mound. (Note that it's entirely possible that they could slot in Chase Anderson and buy Houck a fifth day's rest.) Houck is 10th among pitchers in WAR (1.4), first in FIP (1.99) and fifth in fantasy points per start (18.5). He also owns the year's best single-game point total (35, on April 17).

The decision on Houck versus Anderson would swing things significantly in the Twins' direction -- the projections would have Anderson scoring 5.1 fewer fantasy points and Twins hitters would go from a five to a seven on a 1-10 hitter grading scale (10 being best for offense) -- but Houck might capitalize upon one specific Twins matchups-based advantage, that being that they're much more potent against left- than right-handed pitchers. To date, the Twins' team wOBA is 32 points higher and they've struck out 2.7% less often against lefties, and the projections say that, going forward, they should have a 16-point wOBA split but a wider strikeout rate gap (4.6%).

It's nevertheless a test for both teams, for Houck, more supporting evidence that his hot start is for real, and for the Twins, that they were mere slow-starters who can compete with the league's best, rather than a team that plays more to the opponent.

Everything else you need to know for Friday The Red Sox are likely to activate Vaughn Grissom (groin) to make his season debut on Friday, after his return was delayed by a few days due to the flu. For fantasy, Grissom is better left to benches until he demonstrates in games that he has his timing down and is closer to the player he was in his first 25 big-league contests than since. It's the defensive question that always rings loudly with the Red Sox, as they have minus-6 Defensive Runs Saved from their infield but nine DRS from their outfield thus far, and Grissom isn't expected to significantly upgrade them in that department. It's something to monitor, and tuck away when evaluating Red Sox pitchers. Historically, Houck and Brayan Bello have been more ground ball-oriented, while Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta have more of a fly ball leaning. With one more out recorded in his most recent start -- and that outing was in Mexico City's extreme hitters' environment -- the Houston Astros' Ronel Blanco would have five consecutive quality starts to open his 2024, which included 14⅔ no-hit innings from its beginning. Blanco's heavier changeup usage (31.6%, up from 9.0%) has had a lot to do with it, and that gives him an advantage against a Mariners team with a 35.4% whiff rate against the pitch, and fourth-worst 28.2% against all offerings. Stack Toronto Blue Jays against Washington Nationals left-handed Patrick Corbin, who has been the least effective regular starter in the league thus far and hasn't had an ERA beneath five for the season since 2020. Several Blue Jays regular righties are out there in more than 45% of ESPN leagues, including Justin Turner and Danny Jansen. Jansen has, since the beginning of last season, started 24 of 26 Yusei Kikuchi's outings that were while he was on the active roster, so there's a high probability he'll get this assignment as well. Additional stacks, in a day with a fair amount of opportunities for offense, include the St. Louis Cardinals against the Chicago White Sox's Brad Keller, Pittsburgh Pirates against the Colorado Rockies' Cal Quantrill and Oakland Athletics against the Miami Marlins' Ryan Weathers. Red-hot Tyler Nevin, who has settled in as the Athletics' No. 2 hitter recently, is a noted lefty masher with career .278/.366/.500 rates and seven of his nine homers against that side. Though Slade Cecconi has back-to-back quality starts while filling in for the injured Merrill Kelly, the projections advise a degree of caution. Cecconi's 17th-percentile whiff rate (20.0%) doesn't back up his strikeout success thus far, and he's a noted fly baller (33.9% big-league rate thus far), a steep-downside combination. The San Diego Padres, an above-average, contact-oriented offense, could get to him.

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Starting pitcher rankings for Friday Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Friday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and lots more.

Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF -- 21%) vs. Brad Keller Davis Schneider (TOR, 2B -- 2%) at Patrick Corbin Justin Turner (TOR, 1B -- 48%) at Corbin Brendan Donovan (STL, 2B -- 19%) vs. Keller Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 32%) at Hunter Greene Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 20%) at Brady Singer Alejandro Kirk (TOR, C -- 6%) at Corbin Amed Rosario (TB, SS -- 42%) vs. Jose Quintana Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 20%) at Greene Connor Joe (PIT, RF -- 34%) vs. Cal Quantrill Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Friday Nick Castellanos (PHI, RF -- 61%) vs. Jordan Hicks J.T. Realmuto (PHI, C -- 92%) vs. Hicks Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) at Hunter Greene Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 65%) vs. Joe Ross Dansby Swanson (CHC, SS -- 77%) vs. Ross Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) vs. Dylan Cease Spencer Torkelson (DET, 1B -- 56%) at Marcus Stroman Alec Bohm (PHI, 3B -- 82%) vs. Hicks Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 58%) at Hayden Wesneski Jazz Chisholm Jr. (MIA, CF -- 62%) at JP Sears